FOMC disminuirá ritmo de QE3 este año si sus proyecciones optimistas se cumplen

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El miércoles, el comité de política monetaria de la Fed (FOMC) publicó su comunicado de política monetaria y proyecciones económicas trimestrales y su presidente, Ben Bernanke, dio su conferencia de prensa trimestral (video). Como todo el mundo esperaba, el Comité no anunció ningún cambio inmediato en el programa de compras de activos (QE3): por el momento la Fed seguirá comprando $85 MMN/mes en bonos del Tesoro y títulos hipotecarios de largo plazo. Pero sí dio indicios sobre el futuro de QE3. El mensaje principal fue que, si el desempeño económico es el que se espera, la Fed comenzará a disminuir el ritmo de estímulo monetario este año y dejará de añadir nuevo estímulo a mediados del próximo—fecha para la cual la Fed anticipa una tasa de desempleo de 7.0%.

El comunicado y las proyecciones del FOMC fueron más optimistas que antes. En el comunicado, el Comité dijo que percibía disminuidos los riesgos a la baja para su perspectiva sobre la economía y el mercado laboral. Y las proyecciones para la tasa de desempleo mejoraron:

Bernanke describió la perspectiva macroeconómica del FOMC:

Going forward, the economic outcomes that the Committee sees as most likely involve continuing gains in labor markets, supported by moderate growth that picks up over the next several quarters as the near-term restraint from fiscal policy and other headwinds diminishes. We also see inflation moving back toward our 2 percent objective over time.

Dijo que, si las cifras confirman la perspectiva, el Comité considera apropiado comenzar a disminuir el ritmo de QE3 “más tarde este año” y terminar las nuevas compras de activos a mediados del próximo:

If the incoming data are broadly consistent with this forecast, the Committee currently anticipates that it would be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year; and if the subsequent data remain broadly aligned with our current expectations for the economy, we would continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around midyear. In this scenario, when asset purchases ultimately come to an end, the unemployment rate would likely be in the vicinity of 7 percent, with solid economic growth supporting further job gains, a substantial improvement from the 8.1 percent unemployment rate that prevailed when the Committee announced this program.

Pero la decisión del Comité dependerá enteramente del desempeño económico:

I would like to emphasize once more the point that our policy is in no way predetermined and will depend on the incoming data and the evolution of the outlook, as well as on the cumulative progress toward our objectives. If conditions improve faster than expected, the pace of asset purchases could be reduced somewhat more quickly. If the outlook becomes less favorable, on the other hand, or if financial conditions are judged to be inconsistent with further progress in the labor markets, reductions in the pace of purchases could be delayed; indeed, should it be needed, the Committee would be prepared to employ all of its tools, including an increase in the pace of purchases for a time, to promote a return to maximum employment in a context of price stability.