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Minuta Fed refuerza nuestra perspectiva de moderación QE3 en septiembre

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

22 August 2013

La minuta de la reunión de política monetaria del FOMC del 30-31 julio reveló que todos los miembros del Comité estaban “cómodos” con la explicación que Ben Bernanke ofreció en su conferencia de prensa de mediados de junio sobre la perspectiva para QE3. Bernanke había indicado que, si los indicadores económicos no se deterioran marcadamente, el FOMC comenzará a moderar el programa de compras de activos “más tarde en el año” y lo concluiría a mediados de 2014, cuando espera que la tasa de desempleo esté cercana a 7%. La minuta no dio indicios definitivos sobre si QE3 comenzaría a ser moderado ya a partir de la reunión de mediados de septiembre (FT, WSJ). Nosotros mantenemos nuestra perspectiva de que sí comenzará en septiembre. En cuanto a la orientación a futuro, los miembros discutieron la posibilidad de reducir el umbral de 6.5% por debajo del cual la tasa de desempleo deberá caer antes de comiencen a considerar la posibilidad de aumentar la tasa de fondos federales. Decidieron no hacerlo por el momento.

Casi todos los miembros del Comité estaban “cómodos” con la explicación Ben Bernanke ofreció en su conferencia de prensa de mediados de junio con respecto a la perspectiva para QE3:

[Almost] all participants confirmed that they were broadly comfortable with the characterization of the contingent outlook for asset purchases that was presented in the June postmeeting press conference and in the July monetary policy testimony. Under that outlook, if economic conditions improved broadly as expected, the Committee would moderate the pace of its securities purchases later this year. And if economic conditions continued to develop broadly as anticipated, the Committee would reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps and conclude the purchase program around the middle of 2014. At that point, if the economy evolved along the lines anticipated, the recovery would have gained further momentum, unemployment would be in the vicinity of 7 percent, and inflation would be moving toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective. While participants viewed the future path of purchases as contingent on economic and financial developments, one participant indicated discomfort with the contingent plan on the grounds that the references to specific dates could be misinterpreted by the public as suggesting that the purchase program would be wound down on a more-or-less preset schedule rather than in a manner dependent on the state of the economy. Generally, however, participants were satisfied that investors had come to understand the data-dependent nature of the Committee’s thinking about asset purchases. A few participants, while comfortable with the plan, stressed the need to avoid putting too much emphasis on the 7 percent value for the unemployment rate, which they saw only as illustrative of conditions that could obtain at the time when the asset purchases are completed.

En cuanto a la orientación a futuro, los miembros discutieron la posibilidad de reducir el umbral de 6.5% por debajo del cual la tasa de desempleo deberá caer antes de comiencen a considerar la posibilidad de aumentar la tasa. Decidieron no hacerlo por el momento.

In general, there was support for maintaining the current numerical thresholds in the forward guidance. A few participants expressed concern that a decision to lower the unemployment threshold could potentially lead the public to view the unemployment threshold as a policy variable that could not only be moved down but also up, thereby calling into question the credibility of the thresholds and undermining their effectiveness. Nonetheless, several participants were willing to contemplate lowering the unemployment threshold if additional accommodation were to become necessary or if the Committee wanted to adjust the mix of policy tools used to provide the appropriate level of accommodation.

La minuta no dio indicios definitivos sobre si QE3 comenzaría a ser moderado a partir de la reunión de mediados de septiembre. WSJ:

Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed their plan to try winding down an easy-money program that has charged up global markets but left investors on tenterhooks about when or how aggressively they would move.

Minutes of the Fed’s July 30-31 policy meeting, released Wednesday, suggested officials were on track to start winding down the $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program, possibly as early as September, if the economy strengthens as they expect.

They were, however, a bit more uncertain than in June about whether economic growth would pick up as they forecast and about the gains they were seeing in the job market.

FT:

Economists remained split on whether the Fed minutes signalled a September taper.

“The labour market was too uncertain for the Fed to taper in late-July and developments since then haven’t settled the matter. As such, we don’t expect tapering at the September meeting,” said Paul Edelstein, an economist at IHS Global Insight.

But others disagreed. “While it’s far from a certainty, the minutes from the FOMC meeting in late July appear to support our view that the Fed will begin to slow its monthly asset purchases at the next meeting in mid-September,” said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics.

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