Discursos de la Fed: Duke habla de supervisión, Lacker da pronóstico 2012
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
El viernes pasado (13 ene), Duke habló de su papel como presidente del subcomité de supervisión de organizaciones bancarias comunitarias y pequeñas y regionales (discurso: HTML, PDF).
- La gobernadora Elizabeth Duke es miembro del FOMC.
- Título del discurso: “Opportunities to Reduce Regulatory Burden and Improve Credit Availability”.
- Worcester Telegram (vía Bloomberg): The Federal Reserve is considering crafting rules that would allow banks to rent foreclosed homes rather than sell them at fire sale prices, according to [Duke].
El mismo día (13 ene), Lacker compartió su pronóstico de crecimiento de EE UU en 2012: entre 2.0% y 2.5%. Cree que el estímulo monetario no tiene tanto efecto como algunos piensan (discurso: HTML, PDF).
- El presidente de la Fed de Richmond Jeffrey Lacker votará en el FOMC este año.
- Título de discurso: “Economic Outlook, January 2012”.
The more significant development over the course of the past year, in my view, is the growing sense that there are relatively persistent impediments holding back economic expansion in the U.S. While the pace of growth has rebounded since the first half of 2011, it appears that real GDP growth averaged around 2-½ percent at an annual rate over the second half. Moreover, growth has averaged only 2-½ percent since the recession bottomed out in the second quarter of 2009.
What is hampering our recovery? The still-overbuilt housing market tops the list… Given sizeable oversupply and tighter credit standards, the housing market appears to be in for a lengthy adjustment process.
On balance, until now, the impediments to recovery — including the housing stock overhang, consumer deleveraging, skills deficits and uncertainty regarding regulatory and tax policy — have had the upper hand.
I am expecting only a modest improvement for 2012, with GDP expanding at a pace between 2 and 2-½ percent.
A key part of any forecast is inflation. In 2011, we were reminded that inflation can rise despite elevated unemployment…
Disappointingly slow growth often prompts calls for more central bank stimulus. But monetary policy is given credit for entirely too much influence on real economic activity. Monetary policy is about inflation ― that is, the value of money. The effects of changes in monetary policy on real output and employment are largely the transitory byproducts of frictions that delay the timely adjustment of prices to changes in monetary conditions.
El lunes (16 de enero), Duke reafirmó que se quedaría hasta que tuviera un reemplazo (su mandato termina este mes pero se puede quedar si no se ha nombrado a un reemplazo). (Discurso de Duke). Bloomberg reportó que, en sesión de preguntas y respuestas, dijo que en este momento no le preocupa la inflación.