FMI: Banco central de Turquía debe restringir su postura monetaria y simplificar sus herramientas

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

En el comunicado sobre la Consulta del Artículo IV con Turquía, el FMI dijo que el banco central debe restringir su postura monetaria, reconsiderar su complejo marco de política monetaria y dejar de intervenir en el mercado de divisas para modificar su postura monetaria. El FMI también piensa que Turquía debe restringir su política fiscal para ayudar a mejorar su posición externa. Proyectó crecimiento del PIB de 3.8% este año y 3.5% el próximo.

5. The monetary stance needs to be tightened further to be consistent with the authorities’ inflation target. High credit growth, inflation (both headline and core) well above the end-year target of 5 percent, and the high and widening current account deficit, all warrant positive real policy rates, in particular the one week repo rate. Without this, it would be hard to bring inflation and expectations in line with the authorities’ target.

6. The CBRT should re-consider its monetary policy framework. Ultimately the success of a monetary policy framework is tied to its ability to achieve the inflation target and anchor expectations. The current framework might not be helping to deliver the authorities’ inflation target and may have weakened the monetary transmission mechanism. It is complex and has too many objectives. With a more unforgiving external environment, the framework is increasingly questioned by markets and complicates the communication of policies. Normalizing the framework would boost policy credibility and simplify communication.

7. The authorities should use sales of foreign exchange reserves only to address excessive volatility, as foreign exchange rate interventions cannot substitute for the right monetary stance. This would preserve limited net foreign exchange reserves, which should be increased through sterilized intervention if inflows resume.

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