Todo indica que Yellen será ratificada sin problemas
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
No percibimos fuerte resistencia a la nominación de Janet Yellen durante su audiencia de ayer (jueves 14 noviembre) ante el comité bancario del Senado. Se está confirmando así uno de los supuestos de nuestro escenario central (pg 10). En su testimonio y audiencia, Yellen ofreció una defensa firme de la postura y acciones de política monetaria recientes de la Fed, pero no dio señales precisas sobre cuándo podría comenzar el “tapering” (la reducción gradual de las compras de activos por parte de la Fed). (NYT, Barclays $, Neil Irwin en Wonkblog.)
Janet Yellen es actualmente vicepresidente de la Fed y fue nominada por el Barack Obama para tomar las riendas del banco central a finales de enero 2014, cuando termina el mandato del actual presidente Ben Bernanke. El comité bancario podría votar sobre la nominación la próxima semana y el pleno podría votar a finales del mes.
Del testimonio de Janet Yellen:
We have made good progress, but we have farther to go to regain the ground lost in the crisis and the recession. Unemployment is down from a peak of 10 percent, but at 7.3 percent in October, it is still too high, reflecting a labor market and economy performing far short of their potential. At the same time, inflation has been running below the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2 percent and is expected to continue to do so for some time.
For these reasons, the Federal Reserve is using its monetary policy tools to promote a more robust recovery. A strong recovery will ultimately enable the Fed to reduce its monetary accommodation and reliance on unconventional policy tools such as asset purchases. I believe that supporting the recovery today is the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy.
The questions that Janet L. Yellen faced on Thursday from senators considering her nomination to lead the Federal Reserve made two things fairly clear: The job is hers, and it’s not going to be easy.
Democrats and Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee treated Ms. Yellen as if she were already the Fed’s chairwoman, skipping over questions about her qualifications and instead venting broad frustrations about the slow pace of economic growth.
[…] Some Fed officials are concerned that the asset purchases are undermining financial stability by leading to excesses in certain markets. Ms. Yellen said the Fed was paying close attention to that possibility, but “at this stage I do not see risks to financial stability.”
In response to questioning by Senator Mike Crapo, Republican of Idaho, Ms. Yellen acknowledged that “this program cannot continue forever,” but she also made clear that she saw no reason to pull back other than stronger growth.
Michael Gapen de Barclays ($):
Yellen considered that this payback from fading economic uncertainty would ultimately slow and stronger economic growth would be needed to support growth in employment. This is part of the reason we view March 2014 as the likely onset of tapering. In our view, the drag from fiscal policy will last through year-end and begin to fade only in the first half of next year. If so, the committee will likely be more comfortable with the cumulative progress achieved in reducing unemployment plus a stronger incoming data flow in the first quarter of next year to conclude that the first steps in reducing its asset purchases can begin.