Sector vivienda se recupera en OCDE en promedio pero con divergencias entre países

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

La Organización para la Cooperación y Desarrollo Económico (OCDE) estima que, en promedio, los precios de vivienda crecen en términos reales en los países que conforman el club (no hay cifras para México), aunque este promedio esconde divergencias entre países (panorama económico, p. 21 del PDF). Observa contracciones significantes de precios en Japón, Francia, Países Bajos, Grecia, España, Italia y Portugal.

Housing markets are now improving in the OECD as a whole, but conditions vary considerably across economies (Table 1.2). In the United States, the on- going significant rebound in real prices has been accompanied by further improvements in builders’ confidence and an upturn in sales and real housing investment, although the recent rise in the long-term mortgage rate has tempered developments somewhat. Even so, the upturn in activity is expected to persist, with housing investment rising at double-digit rates through the projection period. Strong growth in household disposable income and favourable financing conditions are also boosting real house price growth in Germany and Switzerland, despite tightening macroprudential measures in the latter. In these economies, prices are now better aligned with household rents and incomes. Real prices are also still rising in Belgium, Canada, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden, even though prices are high relative to rents, pointing to a risk of future correction, especially with borrowing costs now rising. By contrast, real house prices continue to decline in Japan, France, and most other euro area economies, with the pace of the decline being particularly sharp in the Netherlands, Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal, putting pressure on household balance sheets and potentially adding to non-performing loans in the banking sector.