JP Morgan no anticipa acción del BCE este jueves

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

No ve que las condiciones del mercado de dinero se han restringido lo suficiente ni que las expectativas de inflación a mediano plazo se han deteriorado lo suficiente para motivar al Banco Central Europeo a inyectar liquidez o reducir tasas esta semana (Bruce Kasman, David Hensley y Joseph Lupton en Global Data Watch, 31 enero 2014).

Excitement is starting to build as next week’s ECB meeting approaches, with some expecting a move on the liquidity front and some expecting a move on rates. We expect neither. ECB president Draghi has laid out two circumstances that would prompt more action from the central bank: if money market conditions tighten or if the medium-term outlook for inflation deteriorates. Neither condition seems to be in place. There has been little upward movement in forward rates recently, so it is not clear that the ECB feels any pressure here. Recent increases in the level and volatility in spot Eonia have led some to speculate an end to the sterilization of the SMP purchases to boost liquidity. The Bundesbank remains strongly opposed to this step, as underscored by its hostility to the SMP in its recent submission to the Constitutional Court, so it is not clear why the ECB would move in this direction. In the coming months, officials may feel some pressure to act if inflation undershoots the staff’s forecast, as we expect. However, it is not clear the ECB will respond to this forecast miss if growth is improving as anticipated. In particular, we think the odds of ECB action next week are low.