Banco central de Turquía: tasas sin cambio, tono duro

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El banco central de Turquía mantuvo sin cambio sus tasas de política monetaria. Sin embargo, Murat Ucer de GlobalSource Partners ($) observó un tono duro: la primera frase del comunicado fue “El comité monitorea de cerca el deterioro reciente en las perspectivas y expectativas de inflación.” En el informe trimestral sobre la inflación publicado a finales de enero, el banco central proyectó que la inflación se mantendría lejos de la meta de 5% hasta finales del 2015.

Del comunicado (martes):

The  Committee  closely  monitors  recent  deterioration in  the  inflation  outlook  and expectations. Inflation is likely to hover above the 5 percent target for some time due to recent tax adjustments, exchange rate developments, and elevated food prices. In order to contain the deterioration in inflation expectations and pricing behavior, the Committee implemented a strong and frontloaded monetary tightening at the interim meeting of January 28, 2014. Tight monetary policy stance will be maintained until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook.

There is a gradual slowdown in loan growth stemming from the tight monetary policy stance, the recent macroprudential measures, and weak capital flows. The data regarding the first quarter of 2014 indicate some deceleration in private final domestic demand. Meanwhile, with the help of the recovery in foreign demand, contribution of net exports to economic growth is expected to increase. Accordingly, the Committee expects a significant improvement in the current account deficit in 2014.

Según las proyecciones del banco central, la inflación permanecerá lejos de la meta de 5% hasta finales de 2015