Se revisan al alza pronósticos de demanda y oferta mundial de petróleo

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

La semana pasada, la OPEP elevó su pronóstico de demanda mundial de petróleo, mientras que la AIE elevó su pronóstico de oferta. Ambos notaron un marcado aumento en la oferta de crudo iraquí. (FT, WSJ.) En $108.3/barril el 10 de marzo, el precio spot del crudo Brent había caído 2.0% en el año, 1.1% en tres y seis meses, y casi nada (0.3%) en un año.

Del resumen de la Agencia Internacional de Energía:

Global supplies rose by 600 kb/d in February to 92.81 mb/d, led by a 500 kb/d jump in OPEC crude output. Total non-OPEC supplies grew by 1.3 mb/d in 2013 and are expected to increase by a further 1.7 mb/d in 2014, the highest rate of growth since at least the early 1990s, driven primarily by the US and Canada. Russia, China and Brazil will contribute.OPEC crude supplies in February breached the 30 mb/d mark for the first time in five months, led by a surge in Iraqi output to 35-year highs.

WSJ sobre la OPEP:

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted its closely watched forecast for oil demand growth for the second month in a row Wednesday, despite continuing to warn of possible emerging market headwinds.

[…] Meanwhile, output from the group—which produces more than a third of the oil consumed globally each day—rose to its highest level since August last month as Iraq’s production soared by 400,000 barrels a day, offsetting sharp declines from Saudi Arabia and Libya.