Discrepancia en el Banco de Inglaterra

Genevieve Signoret

Las minutas del Banco de Inglaterra dieron a conocer que dos miembros del comité (Ian McCafferty y Martin Weale) votaron en contra de mantener sin cambios la tasa de referencia y a favor de un incremento de 25pb durante la reunión sostenida a principios de este mes.

Los argumentos evocados por Ian McCafferty y Martin Weale son expuestos en este extracto:

For two members, in particular, economic circumstances were sufficient to justify an immediate rise in Bank Rate. These members noted that the continuing rapid fall in unemployment alongside survey evidence of tightening in the labour market created a prospect that wage growth would pick up. They noted that it was possible that wages were lagging developments in the labour market to some extent. If that were true, wages might not start to rise until spare capacity in the labour market were fully used up. Since monetary policy, too, could be expected to operate only with a lag, it was desirable to anticipate labour market pressures by raising Bank Rate in advance of them.

Cabe mencionar que el último dato de inflación del Reino Unido, en donde se registró una fuerte baja en los precios del consumidor, fue publicado después de la decisión a la que estas minutas hacen referencia.

Aún ante un incremento prematuro en la tasa de referencia, la política monetaria continuaría siendo extremadamente complaciente de acuerdo a este extracto de la minuta:

In the judgement of these members, even after a rise of 25 basis points in Bank Rate, monetary policy would remain extremely supportive, and an early rise would facilitate the Committee’s aspiration that the rises in Bank Rate should be only gradual.

Esta postura del Banco de Inglaterra está en línea con nuestro escenario central que prevé que las tasas de los principales bancos centrales del mundo se mantendrán bajas por mucho tiempo