Outside the USA, industrial output looks grim

Genevieve Signoret

Activity

Overview

U.S. industrial production is the sole economy we track growing at a steady moderate pace. In Mexico and India, it’s recovering weakly from utter stagnation. Elsewhere among our 13 “core” economies, it’s decelerating—in Brazil, in fact, it’s in free fall.

U.S. industrial production is growing at a steady moderate pace. In Mexico and India it’s recovering weakly. Elsewhere, it’s decelerating.

USA is a standout

U.S. industrial production is growing inside a steady range of 3.5% and 4.0% year on year. Trade data suggest that U.S. outperformance is being driven by domestic demand.

Trade data suggest that U.S. outperformance among advanced economies is being driven by domestic demand

EM industrial growth rates are mixed

U.S. industrial production is growing inside a steady range of 3.5% and 4.0% year on year. Trade data suggest that U.S. outperformance is being driven by domestic demand.

EM growth rates are mixed, with weak recovery in Mexico and India and Brazilian output in free fall

In Mexico, construction alone is pushing output up

Mexico’s industrial production index, which, unlike that of the USA, includes construction output, has accelerated from near stagnation to a weak 1.6%. Construction has finally started to recover, whereas manufacturing has come to a halt.

Mexican manufacturing output has come to a halt

Although in the USA mining is growing rapidly, in Mexico it’s contracting. In both countries, mining is dominated by energy.

Although in the USA mining is growing rapidly,…

…in Mexico it’s contracting. In both countries, mining is dominated by energy.

Slack is vast in advanced economies

Industrial slack remains vast in advanced economies. Among the eight we track closely, in only one—the USA—does output surpass its Dec 2007 level—by 4 percentage points.

Industrial slack remains vast in advanced economies. In the 8 shown here, in only one—the USA—does output surpass its Dec 2007 level

Mexico’s recovery matches the USA’s

Industrial output in Mexico since December 2007 has expanded the same four percentage points as in the USA.

Mexico’s output since 2007 has grown the same 4 percentage points as in the USA.