Geopolitical Risk Briefer Part I

Genevieve Signoret

Libya

Conflict in Libya continues between anti-Islamist militia and Islamist rivals, and two competing parliaments. Repeated UN calls for ceasefire has done nothing to stop the situation. Egypt denies involvement in reported Egyptian airstrikes on Benghazi’s Islamist forces. An Islamist parallel government has emerged in Tripoli. Libya’s elected parliament has declared an alliance with renegade General Khalifa Haftar in an attempt to reassert control. The elected parliament has relocated to Tobruk, in the east of the country (CG). Although Libya’s oil production continues to recover it’s not indifferent to the conflict: in November, its largest operational field was shut down for a few hours after a gun battle between rival militia (The National).

Russia’s borders

• In Georgia, Prime Minister Garibashvili said that attempts to improve relations with Moscow has progressed solely in the economic sphere, not in political relations. Russia has signed a controversial “strategic partnership” deal with the Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia. Russian and Abkhaz forces in the region will turn into a join force led by a Russian commander. Russia will also increase its subsidies to Abkhazia to $200 million. Georgia has complained that this is a step toward Russian annexation of Abkhazia.  (FT.)
• On 10 October Armenia’s President Sarkisian signed an agreement to join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union on 1 January 2015.
• Moldova has been increasing ties with the European Union, signing an Association Agreement. It also banned a pro-Russian party from elections on the basis that it had received financial support from a foreign country (RFRL).
• Putin says: Kazakhs never had any statehood and it is to their advantage to remain in the greater Russian world (RFRL).
• Renewed fighting in Ukraine on Russian border (Donetsk) after the end of the ceasefire in the region. Russian gas agreement on October 30 for Russian gas to flow through Ukraine.

Where, potentially, is the next Crimea?

Source: Wikipedia.

The map shows that today there are large populations of Russians in Estonia and Latvia, which are in NATO and thus not likely to be targets. Of greater concern are Russian backed separatist movements in Transdniester (breakaway republic from Moldova), Eastern Ukraine, Abkhazia and South Ossetia (although Abkhazia and South Ossetia do not have significant Russian populations. Northern Kazakhstan (23.7% of population of Kazakhstan—nearly four million and the second largest number of Russians in any post-Soviet state) and Kyrgyzstan (6.4%) have the largest proportions of Russians in Central Asia (Wikipedia).

Niger Delta

There has been an increase in criminal activity among the upcoming 2015 Nigerian election. Kidnapping, which had gone down in 2009, is now surging back up with local politicians arming their supporters to protect them against opponents. According to International Crisis Group, this surge in organized crime is partly linked to either raising money for campaigns through ransom or intimidating political opponents (CG).

Boko Haram

Also threatening Nigeria are Islamist Boko Haram militants in the North (far from the oil-rich South). Since 2013, insurgents have adopted new tactics, including the bombing of cities, scorched earth, and assaults on military police. This marks a shift from hit-and-run guerilla tactics to conventional warfare. The Independent National Election Commission of Nigeria warned that unless the insurgency and state of emergency end in the North by 2015, elections may not be held. If this scenario materializes, election’s legitimacy could be call into question; a nation-wide governance crisis could arise (CG1, CG2).

Source: Le Monde.

ISIL

In Iraq, ISIL militants advanced in Anbar, surrounding province capital Ramadi. The US-led campaign against ISIL continues. US airstrikes expanded in Syria despite purported lack of strategy, with over 500 militants and dozens of civilians killed since late September (CG). Iran has launched aerial attacks in Iraq, the US recognized in December (Le Monde).