Fed hike in October
Genevieve Signoret
Macro Views After prolonged agony, we have shifted our forecast for the timing of the first Fed hike to October from September. We premise this forecast on the assumption that markets will start recovering in October and U.S. macro data will continue to signal expansion, especially in the service sector. Why the change? We think […]
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I agree with Tim Duy but my reasons differ
Genevieve Signoret
Tim Duy speculates as to what it would mean if the FOMC hiked rates by 25 basis points to 0.25–0.50% on September 17 even though inflation is below and diverging away from the 2% Fed target and no observable signs have emerged that inflation pressures are building. He argues that an initial 25 basis-point lift-off […]
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Grecia: esperamos noticias de Bruselas
Genevieve Signoret
Macro Views Resumen Tras el histórico referéndum del pasado domingo 5 de julio, la situación de Grecia empieza a vislumbrar un final. A pesar de la victoria del “No”, en los siguientes días las negociaciones se retomaron. Al inicio de la semana, se veía la salida de Grecia de la Eurozona como un escenario cada […]
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High uncertainty and larger risks
Genevieve Signoret
Macro Views The week was dominated by news from Greece, which we wrote on here and here. But the U.S. jobs report also made a splash. Strong non-farm payrolls, the drop in unemployment, and flat real wages confirmed our central-scenario view that the Fed will act in September but move slowly. Next week’s news will […]
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Japan IP: Trend contraction continues
Genevieve Signoret
Monday 29 June, Japan published its May industrial production report. The index maintained its six-month moving average (6mma) pace of year-on-year growth of –1.7%, implied by a month-on-month drop of 2.2% (both rates of change are based on seasonally adjusted data). This result marks no change from April in the six-month trend rate of contraction. […]
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Crisis en Grecia: actualización martes 30 junio
Genevieve Signoret
Hoy a partir de la media noche, tiempo de Europa, se venció el plazo para que Grecia pague €1.5MMn al FMI. Anticipando esta situación el primer ministro griego, Alexis Tsipras, envió al Eurogrupo una propuesta para alcanzar un acuerdo y obtener de sus socios europeos un tercer rescate. La solicitud bajo este tercer rescate de […]
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Crisis en Grecia: actualización lunes 29 junio
Genevieve Signoret
Las negociaciones entre Grecia y sus acreedores llegaron a su fin el viernes pasado por la noche, cuando el ministro de finanzas griego abandonó la mesa de discusión en Bruselas para regresar a su país. Poco tiempo después, el primer ministro, Alexis Tsipras, sorprendía al mundo anunciando un referéndum programado para el próximo domingo 5 […]
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Greece and US jobs: offsetting forces on UST rates this week
Genevieve Signoret
Macro Views Para español favor de desplazarse hacia abajo. As we publish this blog entry, Greece is in flux. Its government has called for what may be an unconstitutional referendum to be held on the deal being offered by its creditors. But now rumors are coming in that creditors have taken the deal off the […]
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Greece accord seems nigh
Genevieve Signoret
Macro Views We seem to be on the verge of a Greece accord As we put the final touches on this blog entry, the Wall Street Journal writes, “Greece and its creditors appear to have taken a step toward agreement in acrimonious negotiations aimed at preventing the European Central Bank and other international lenders from […]
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Revamping
Genevieve Signoret
We’re revamping our macro research reporting process. Meanwhile, Timón Económico is on pause. We’ll resume publication on June 15.