Euro area money supply’s recovering, Mexico business credit too
Genevieve Signoret
Financial conditions Money supply growth in the euro area continued to accelerate in January. M3, a broad measure of money supply, swelled by 4.1% from the previous year, marking an accelerating trend from year-on-year growth rates of 3.8% in December and 3.1% the month before. Credit continued to contract but at a slower pace than […]
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We revise inflation numbers but not our monetary policy views on Fed or BoJ
Genevieve Signoret
Prices We revised down our forecast for U.S. core PCE inflation in 2015 and 2016 and note falling inflation in Japan, while holding our monetary policy outlooks for both the Fed and the Bank of Japan unchanged. U.S. core CPI inflation held firm U.S. consumer prices in January were lower than a year earlier. The […]
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U.S. Q4 2014 GDP was revised down
Genevieve Signoret
Activity U.S. Q4 2014 GDP was revised down to 2.2% q/q saar from 2.6%, mostly because inventory investment was revised and the trade deficit was revised wider. Not all the news was bad. All international trade figures (exports and imports both) were revised up, To incorporate incoming data, we have revised up our outlook for […]
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It’s not over for Greece
Genevieve Signoret
Policy The deal reached by Greece with the Troika last week is a stopgap measure only. A deal for Greece Greece reached a temporary deal last Monday 23 February with the Eurogroup, the IMF and the ECB to extend the current bailout program by four months. The deal commits the Greek government to complete the reform […]
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Despite the Ukraine ceasefire, Russian relations with the West remain tense
Genevieve Signoret
Politics Ceasefire’s holding in the Ukraine On Thursday 26 February, the Ukraine army said that for the first time in several weeks no Ukrainian soldier had been killed in battle. With one week of delay and after the victory in Debaltseve, the pro-Russian separatists seem to be respecting the Minsk ceasefire. Both sides have begun withdrawing heavy weaponry. But […]
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La economía mexicana se aceleró en T4 2014
Genevieve Signoret
Actividad: Actividad general En el T4 2014, con base en la serie desestacionalizada y a tasa anualizada, la economía mexicana creció 2.6%. Esta cifra marca una aceleración desde el trimestre anterior (2.1%). En México, el PIB se aceleró en T4 2014
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A pesar de la baja en el sector minero, la producción industrial de EE UU se acelera
Genevieve Signoret
Actividad: Empresas Mientras que la actividad minera en EE UU se desaceleró en enero, la manufacturera se aceleró lo suficiente para que la producción industrial total también lo hiciera. En enero, el crecimiento interanual de la producción industrial en EE UU se aceleró a 4.8% desde 4.4% el mes anterior. En tendencia, continuó creciendo a […]
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Elecciones en Reino Unido: ¿producirán referéndum sobre pertenencia a la UE?
Genevieve Signoret
Política Resumen Las elecciones del 6 de mayo en el Reino Unido podrían generar un congreso sin mayoría, desencadenando una segunda elección o una coalición con un partido lejano al centro. Una posible coalición se formaría entre el Partido Laboral, el Partido Escocés Nacional (SNP) y los Verdes tiene la mayor probabilidad de formarse. El […]
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Preferencias de electores mexicanos: PRI 32 por ciento, PAN 26, PRD 13, pequeños 29
Genevieve Signoret
Política Una encuesta[1] recién publicada por El Financiero ubica para las elecciones intermedias al PRI con 32% de la preferencia efectiva[2], al PAN con 26% y al PRD con 13%; los partidos pequeños (ahora medianos) suman 29%. A pesar de los recientes escándalos de conflictos de interés en el gobierno federal y la crisis interna […]
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Fed confirms our view, Banxico revises down growth
Genevieve Signoret
Monetary Policy The Fed minutes didn’t change our view, which was that the first rate hike will come in the second half of 2015, not in June. As Genevieve explains in last week’s Letter from the President, we read evidence that FOMC discussions are moving in the direction of postponing the start of interest rates […]